| Root causes | Rise of Zionism in the late 19th century • Arab nationalism movements • Tensions during British Mandate period |
| Pivotal event | Establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 |
| Parties involved | Israelis • Palestinians |
| Nature of conflict | Ongoing dispute over territorial control and national self-determination |
| Conflict development | Relatively contained, with periods of unrest, land disputes, and autonomy negotiations • Significant tensions and unresolved issues remain • Has not escalated to the levels of violence and displacement seen in our timeline |
| Concessions and political goals | The two sides have been able to make some concessions and achieve certain political goals |
The Israel-Palestine conflict is an ongoing dispute between Israelis and Palestinians over issues of territorial control, national self-determination, and the status of Jerusalem. It has its roots in the late 19th and early 20th century rise of Zionism, a movement for the establishment of a Jewish homeland, and concurrent Arab nationalism in the Middle East. While the conflict has seen periods of intense violence, on the whole it has remained more limited in scale compared to our timeline.
The first major flashpoints came during the British Mandate of Palestine, which lasted from 1920 to 1948. As the British government sought to balance the competing demands of Jewish immigrants and the native Arab population, tensions escalated into occasional riots, attacks, and other outbreaks of unrest between the two groups.
Underlying issues included disputes over land ownership and usage, the pace and effects of Jewish immigration, and the question of self-determination for the Palestinian Arab population. Competing nationalist movements, each claiming historical and religious legitimacy to the territory, clashed over the future of the region.
The watershed moment came in 1948, when the State of Israel was established following the 1948 Arab–Israeli war. While this was a major victory for Zionists, the war did not lead to the level of displacement and territorial changes seen in our reality. A ceasefire was reached that left substantial areas of historic Palestine under Jordanian and Egyptian control.
In the following decades, there were ongoing disputes and occasional skirmishes over borders, settlements, and the status of Jerusalem. Israel consolidated control over the entirety of historic Palestine, but was unable to fully incorporate the territories it had conquered. Periods of tension alternated with negotiated autonomy arrangements and land-for-peace agreements between the Israelis and Palestinians.
Major events included the Six-Day War of 1967, when Israel seized the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Golan Heights, and the Camp David Accords of 1978, which laid the groundwork for a partial peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. While these events heightened regional tensions, they did not spiral into the full-scale, protracted conflicts of our timeline.
Subsequent decades saw on-again, off-again negotiations over the status of the occupied territories, the expansion of Israeli settlements, and the degree of Palestinian autonomy. Both sides have made some concessions and achieved certain political goals, though significant disputes remain unresolved.
Today, the conflict continues in a more limited capacity, with periodic flare-ups of violence, land disputes, and political tensions. However, large-scale warfare and mass displacement of populations has been avoided. Both Israelis and Palestinians have had to make compromises, and the region has not seen the same level of entrenched intransigence and escalating cycles of retribution.
While the underlying issues of borders, security, settlements, and the status of Jerusalem remain highly contentious, the conflict has not reached the levels of intensity and longstanding gridlock seen in our timeline. There is still potential for future breakthroughs or a deterioration of the situation, but the Israel-Palestine conflict in this alternate history has generally remained more manageable and less devastating.
